This was originally at dailyKos, and is a bit dated, but the theory is still sound, I think. I’ve noted places where filing is closed….there’s always 2010!
The other day, James Risser put up an excellent diary 86 the 86 in ’08. These are the 86 Dems. who voted with 194 Repubs to agree to keep funding the war.
I thought, though, that 1) We aren’t going to get 86 primaries going. It would be nice, but that’s a LOT of races! 2) We don’t want to replace moderate-conservative Democrats with right wing Repubs and therefore 3) The ones we really need to target are those in Democratic districts, where a more progressive Dem. would beat a Repub.
What I did was go through the list of 86, find out how long each had been in Congress, how liberal they were on other issues, and what the district was like. Then I rated each as ‘not a priority’, ‘moderate priority’, or ‘HIGH PRIORITY’; on a few, I added “GO GET HIM!”.
These ratings are about primarying, only! Clearly, we would be better off with 435 Democrats, all of whom vote like my guy (Jerrold Nadler, NY-8). Well, maybe someday. I have some ideas for what to do about that at the end. But for now, I think we need to concentrate on these people. Also, I did not take into account whether a primary challenge would WIN. The reason I didn’t is because even a challenge is valuable.
Jason Altmire (PA 4) is a first term congressperson from a Republican district (54-45 Bush over Kerry). He narrowly (52-48) beat Melissa Hart, who was bad news. On other issues, he seems pretty good. Leave him be.
Robert Andrews (NJ 1) was elected in 1990. The district is solidly Democratic (61-39 Kerry). His record is generally moderate. HIGH PRIORITY. Mahdi Ibn-Ziyad is running.
Joe Baca (CA 43) was first elected in 1999. This is a solidly Democratic district (58-41 Kerry). Baca is, in the Almanac of Am. Politics words “one of the most conservative CA Dems”. HIGH PRIORITY. Joanne Gilbert is running
Brian Baird (WA 03) was first elected in 1998. This is a tight district (50-48 Bush over Kerry) that Baird wins easily (62% an 63% in recent elections). Not a priority.
John Barrow (GA 12) was elected in 2004. This district is moderately Democratic (54-46 Kerry), and Barrow is, at best, a moderate. He could easily be replaced with a leftist, possibly an African American, as the district is 40% AA. The district is also getting more D over time. HIGH PRIORITY Update [2007-5-27 10:17:34 by plf515]: per the comments, apparently this district was just changed and is no longer so Democratic, so this is a moderate priority
Melissa Bean (IL 8) was first elected in 2004. This is Republican territory (56-44 Bush over Kerry) and, while Bean is no lefty, she’s probably as progressive as this district will go. Not a priority.
Shelley Berkley (NV 01) was elected in 1998. This is a solid Democratic district (57-41 Kerry). Berkley has faced primaries before, and won easily, nevertheless, her fairly moderate record makes her a HIGH PRIORITY. No opponents now, but filing deadline is May 16
Marion Berry (AR 01), first elected 1996. A tossup district (52-48 Bush over Kerry). Berry is a very conservative Dem. but in AR 01, I don’t know that we will do better. Not a priority.
Sanford Bishop (GA 02) was first elected in 1992. This is another case of a conservative Dem. winning in Republican territory (54-46 Bush over Kerry). Bishop is probably the most conservative guy in the Black caucus, and this district is 44% Black. So, could a more liberal Black get enough of the White vote to win? Maybe. Moderate priority
Dan Boren (OK 2) was elected in 2004. This district is highly Republican (Bush 59-41 over Kerry). Although Boren is a conservative Dem. he’s better than a Repub. Not a priority.
Leonard Boswell (IA 03) has been in since 1996. This is a swing district, Bush won by 300 votes. Boswell wins narrowly, and a more liberal Dem. might get crushed. Not a priority
Rick Boucher (VA 09) was first elected in 1982. VA 09 is overwhelminghly Repub. (Bush got 59% against Kerry) and Boucher is very popular (he wins 60% and more). He’s very active on internet issues, from what I gathered, he’s good on those. Not a priority – but see Va Dare’s comment.
Allen Boyd (FL 02) was first elected in 1996 in a district that is fairly Republican (Bush got 54 against Kerry). Boyd is a conservative Democrat. He ran unopposed in 06, it might be time to challenge. Moderate priority
Nancy Boyda (KS 01) was elected in 2006 in an overwhelmingly Repub. district (Bush 59-41 over Kerry), for this district, I think Boyda is as good as it gets. Not a priority.
GK Butterfield (NC 01) was elected in 2004. This is a strongly Democratic district (Kerry got 57%). Butterfield won in a special election to replace a criminal. He’s pretty good on most issues, but it’s time to hold his feet to the fire. He ran unopposed in 2006, let’s make that not happen in ’08. HIGH PRIORITY.
Dennis Cardoza (CA 18) was first elected in 2002 in a swing district (Bush won by a few hundred votes). He was co-chair of the Blue Dog Democrats. I dunno. Moderate priority
Chris Carney (PA 10) is a freshman from an overwhelmingly Repub district (Bush 60-40 over Kerry). Not a priority.
Ben Chandler (KY 06) was first elected in 2004. Not only is this Repub territory (Bush got 58%) but Chandler is popular. Not a priority.
Jim Clyburn (SC 6) was elected in 1992. This is overwhelmingly a Democratic CD (Kerry got 61%). Considering this, and considering Clyburn’s relatively moderate record on other issues, I’d say we could make this a HIGH PRIORITY. No primary opponents, deadline is March 31.
Jim Cooper (TN 5) was elected in 2002, but was in from 1983-1995, as well. This is a pretty Democratic CD (Kerry got 52%). Cooper might seek some higher office, in which case, we might try for something here, but otherwise, I’d say it’s a moderate priority, since I can’t see us touching Cooper
Jim Costa (CA 20) was first elected in 2004. This is a moderately Democratic district (Kerry got 51%, Gore got 55%). Costa is conservative, for a Dem, and may be vulnerable in this heavily Latino (63%) district. Moderate priority
Bud Cramer (AL 05) has been in Congress since 1990. He’s another conservative Dem in Republican country (Bush got 60%) and he wins by big margins. Not a priority.
Henry Cuellar (TX 28) was elected in 2004. This is a swing district, it went narrowly for Gore and narrowly against Kerry. Moderate priority
Susan Davis (CA 53) was elected in 2000. This is an overwhelmingly Democratic district (Kerry got 61%). She wins easily, but could be more liberal and still win easily. HIGH PRIORITY. No primary opponents yet, and deadline is March 7
Lincoln Davis (side note, did you know there are 8 people named Davis in Congress?) (TN 04) was elected in 2002. This is another Republican district, Bush got 58% against Kerry. Davis is conservative for a Democrat, but the choice is a Repub. Not a priority.
Norm Dicks (WA 6) has been in Congress since 1976. This district is moderately Democratic (Kerry got 53%, Gore 52%) and Dicks is in the middle of the party. I can’t see us getting anyone to challenge this guy – 30 years of serving is a lot – but if we COULD, it would be great. Moderate priority.
John Dingell (MI 15) has been in Congress longer than I’ve been alive, and I’m 47. He got in in 1955. This is a Democratic district (Kerry got 62%), and Dingell is getting old (he turns 81 this summer). A primary opponent might get him to retire. Lynn Rivers might be interested, she lost her seat due to redistricting (and lost the primary to Dingell). (Odd tidbit, Dingell’s father also served in Congress, starting in 1932 – that’s 75 years of a Dingell representing MI)
Joe Donnelly (IN 02) is a freshman rep. This is a Repub. district (Bush got 56% against Kerry) and Donnelly had lost to the previous rep (Chocala) in 2004. I’d say it’s not a priority.
Chet Edwards (TX 17), first elected in 1990, may be the Democrat in the most Republican district. TX 17 went 70% for Bush. Of course, part of that is Texas; still, this is TX, this seat was redistricted for the Repubs, and Edwards IS a Democrat (albeit a conservative one). Despite being in for all that time, his recent elections have not been cakewalks. Not a priority.
Brad Ellsworth (IN 08) is a freshman in an overwhelmingly Republican district (62% for Bush over Kerry). He replaced Hostetler, who was a real right-winger who won big in previous elections, even when he was outspent hugely. Ellsworth is no progressive, that’s for sure, but he’s way better than anyone else we could get here. Not a priority.
Rahm Emanuel (IL 05) was first elected in 2002 in a strongly Democratic district (67% for Kerry). Although he was head of the DCCC for 2006, it’s time he acted like a REAL Democrat, ALL the time. HIGH PRIORITY. Well, it would be nice, but not realistic, and the deadline is passed.
Bob Etheridge (NC 02) was first elected in 1996. This is a somewhat Republican district (54% Bush over Kerry) and yet Etheridge wins easily (over 60%). Etheridge is actually pretty good for this district, but he might run for Senate, maybe challenging Dole in 2008. Not a priority. Likely to go Repub if Etheridge gives up the seat.
Gabrielle Giffords (AZ 08) is a freshman in a moderately Repub district (Bush got 53%). She won pretty easily in an open seat (54-42) and is fairly progressive on other issues. Not a priority.
Kirsten Gillibrand (NY 20) is yet another freshman in a Republican leaning district (Bush got 54% over Kerry). So far, Gillibrand looks good on other issues, and so I don’t think this is a priority.
Charles Gonzalez (TX 20) was first elected in 1998. This is a Democratic district (Kerry got 55%) and Gonzalez is too moderate. HIGH PRIORITY. No opponent and the deadline has passed.
Bart Gordon (TN 6) was first elected in 1984 in this Republican district (Bush got 60% against Kerry, and tied with Gore despite this being Gore’s old seat). Gordon is a moderate, but I don’t see this district going more progressive. Not a priority.
Gene Green (TX 29) was first elected in 1992. This is a Democratic district (Kerry got 56%, Gore got 57% and this is Texas!). Green is a moderate….too moderate for this safe seat. The district is 66% Latino….any progressive Latinos want to make this a HIGH PRIORITY? No opponent, deadline has passed.
Herseth Sandlin (SD AL) was elected in 2004. She is certainly a conservative Dem. South Dakota is interesting – 60% for Bush, but Johnson won the Senate seat in a nail biter, and he’s far more liberal than Herseth. I’m going to claim ignorance and make it a moderate priority.
Baron Hill (IN 09) is a freshman in a Republican district (Bush got 59% against Kerry). He’s no progressive, but he and Mike Sodrel (R) have been trading this seat (Hill won in 2002, Sodrel in 2004, Hill in 2006) and I’m thinking that Hill is better than a Repub. Not a priority
Ruben Hinojosa (TX 15) got elected in 1996, in this swing district (Bush got 55% against Kerry, but beat Gore by only 109 votes). He’s a moderate Democrat, and this district was redistricted to favor the Repubs. I’d say it’s not a priority.
Tim Holden (PA 17) was first elected in 1992. This is a Republican district (Bush got 58%) and Holden has had serious challengers in 2004 and 2002, and might again in 2008. Holden is a conservative Democrat, but that’s the district. Not a priority.
Steny Hoyer (MD 05) was first elected in 1981. This is a solid Democratic district (Kerry got 57%) and Hoyer has a lot to answer for. GO GET HIM! HIGH PRIORITY. James Cusick is running, but might be worse than Hoyer, and his web page makes him look like a nut.
Steve Kagen (WI 8) is another freshman in a fairly Republican district (Bush got 55% against Kerry). He won a close race in an open seat in 2006, and he appears pretty solidly liberal. Write him letters and ask what he was doing, but this isn’t a priority.
Paul Kanjorski (PA 11) was first elected in 1984. This district is moderately Democratic (53% for Kerry, 54% for Gore), and Kanjorski is moderate. Kanjorski always wins easily, so let’s make this a HIGH PRIORITY. Maybe a primary challenge will induce retirement. No opponent, and the deadline has passed
Dale Kildee (MI 05) was first elected in 1976. This is a solidly Democratic district (59% Kerry) and Kildee isn’t bad, but he could be a lot better. He turns 78 this fall, and it’s time to ‘spend time with his family’. GO GET HIM! HIGH PRIORITY. No opponent, deadline past.
Ron Kind (WI 03) was first elected in 1996 in this swing district (Kerry got 51%). Kind is a moderate, and this is a moderate district – but he wins easily in general elections, so this is moderate priority
Nick Lampson (TX 22) took over from the Devil Incarnate aka Tom DeLay. He’s actually not too bad on some issues (Progressive Punch gives him a 76%) and this is a right wing district (Bush got 64%). I’d be surprised if Lampson holds on, and certainly this is not a priority.
Rick Larsen (WA 02) was first elected in 2000. This is a swing district (Kerry got 51%) and Larsen has been OK on other issues. He doesn’t usually win easily in the general, so I’d say this is not a priority.
Sander Levin (MI 12) was first elected in 1982 in this solidly Democratic district (Kerry got 61%). But Levin is a solidly liberal guy on most issues….still, this district is solidly Democratic, so if Levin can’t explain his vote (and I’d like to see him try!) this is a HIGH PRIORITY (also, Levin is 76, he may retire soon). No opponent but the filing deadline is in May.
Dan Lipinski (IL 03) was first elected in 2004 in this solidly Democratic district (Kerry got 59%). This guy inherited the seat from his father, and proudly (???) claims to be the most conservative Democrat in the Illinois delegation. GO GET HIM. HIGH PRIORITY! Well, we tried.
Tim Mahoney (FL 16) is the guy who took over from Mark Foley. This is a fairly Republican district, and Foley probably would have won if not for well….. you know. I don’t know what Mahoney was doing, but this is not a priority.
Jim Marshall (GA 08 aka 03) is a freshman Democrat in a Republican district (55% Bush over Kerry) (note, this used to be GA 03). Marshall faces tough general elections very often, and thus this race is not a priority.
Jim Matheson (UT 02) was first elected in 2000. Of all CDs that send Democrats to DC, this may be the most Republican (66% for Bush). Matheson is, to be sure, a conservative Democrat. But this is Utah. Not a priority.
Mike McIntyre (NC 07) was first elected in 1996. This is Republican territory (Bush got 56% against Kerry) and McIntyre is the right wing of the Democratic party. A primary challenge might even induce him to run as a Repub (and likely win). Not a priority.
Kendrick Meek (FL 17) was first elected in 2002. This is one of the most Democratic districts in the country (83% for Kerry!). Meek is wrong a LOT. This seat should be held by a flaming LIBERAL – and Meek was unopposed in 02, 04 and 06. Why??? GO GET HIM. HIGH PRIORITY. No opponent yet, but they have until May 2.
Charles Melancon (LA 03) was first elected in 2004 in this fairly Republican district (Bush got 58% against Kerry). Melancon is the right wing of the Democratic party, and I’m betting the people of LA are pretty pissed at Repubs about now. HIGH PRIORITY.
Update [2007-5-27 9:25:40 by plf515]: But see comments. I appear to be wrong about Louisiana
Harry Mitchell (AZ 05) is a freshman in a fairly Republican district (Bush got 54% against Kerry). He seems decent on other issues. Not a priority.
Alan Mollohan (WV 01) was first elected in 1982. He typically wins easily in this heavily Republican district. He’s not my favorite Democrat, but not as far right as some, and this is not a priority.
Dennis Moore (KS 03) was first elected in 1998. This is a Republican district (Bush got 55% against Kerry), and Moore isn’t a bad guy. Not a priority.
John Murtha (PA 12) has been in Congress since 1974. This is a Democratic district (Kerry only got 51%, but Gore got 55%) and Murtha is pretty conservative. He won’t be easy to beat, but let’s go for it. HIGH PRIORITY.
No opponent, deadline past.
Solomon Ortiz (TX 27) was first elected in 1982. Considering this is Texas, Bush didn’t do well here (55% against Kerry, but he lost to Gore by a few hundred votes) and Ortiz is the right wing of the party. HIGH PRIORITY. No opponent, deadline past.
Collin Peterson (MN 07) was first elected in 1990. This is a pretty Republican district (Bush got 55% against Kerry) but this guy is way to the right of the party. The Almanac of American Politics calls him a “different kind of Democrat” – yeah, the Republican kind! HIGH PRIORITY. Update [2007-5-27 20:19:31 by plf515]: But see comments below, this may not be as high priority as I think
Earl Pomeroy (ND AL) has been in Congress since 1992. I don’t get ND. It gave Bush 63%, but both senators, and lone representative are all Democrats! OTOH, its Republican governor won in a landslide. I’ll call it not a priority, but if someone knows something?
Nick Rahall (WV 03) was first elected in 1976. This is a swing district (it went for Bush over Kerry, but Gore over Bush). Rahall seems pretty decent on the issues, so I can’t say this is a priority
Ciro Rodriguez (TX 23) just beat Henry Bonilla in 2006. This is a solidly Repub district, and Rodriguez is not a bad guy (83 on Progressive Punch). Not a priority.
Mike Ross (AR 04) was first elected in 2000. This is a swing district (Bush over Kerry, Gore over Bush); Ross, though, seems to run unopposed. Should we change that? Moderate priority.
Dutch Ruppersberger (MD 02) was first elected in 2002. This district is moderately Democratic (54% for Kerry) and Ruppersberger is in the middle of the Democratic party. Still, a challenge could be good – this one isn’t going Repub. Moderate priority.
John Salazar (CO 03) was first elected in 2004. This is a moderately Republican district (Bush got 55% against Kerry), Salazar isn’t too bad (77 on Progressive Punch) and I say it’s not a priority.
Allyson Schwartz (PA 13) was first elected in 2004. This is a Democratic district (Kerry got 56%), and, in general, Schwartz is a liberal (88 on Progresive Punch), but still, what was she thinking? Moderate priority.
David Scott (GA 13) was first elected in 2002. This is a solidly Democratic district (Kerry got 64%) and Scott is a conservative Democrat. HIGH PRIORITY.
Joe Sestak (PA 07) is a freshman. This is a swing district (Kerry got 53%). Sestak has been good on other Iraq votes, so I’d say let’s try to figure out what he was thinking before deciding.
Heath Shuler (NC 11) is a freshman, and this is a solidly Repub district (Bush got 58% against Kerry). Not a priority.
Ike Skelton (MO 04) has been in Congress since 1976. He’s a blue dog, but this is a Republican district (Bush got 64% against Kerry) and this is not a priority.
Vic Snyder (AR 02) was first elected in 1996. This is a swing district (Bush got 51% against Kerry) and Snyder is pretty good on other issues. Not a priority.
Zack Space (OH 18) is a freshman. This is Bush territory (Bush got 57% against Kerry). Space won big in 2006, he seems to be right on most things, so this is not a priority.
John Spratt (SC 5) was first elected in 1982. This is a Republican district (Bush got 58% against Kerry) and, that considered, Spratt is not bad (76 on Progressive Punch). Not a priority
Bart Stupak (MI 01) was first elected in 1992. This is a swing district (Bush got 53% against Kerry), Stupak is scarcely a liberal, but not really a true blue dog. He often faces general election problems, so this is not a priority.
John Tanner (TN 08) was first elected in 1988. This is a swing district (Bush beat Kerry, Gore beat Bush). Tanner has won all the general elections easily, making this a moderate priority.
Gene Taylor (MS 4) was first elected in 1989 in this strongly Republican district (Bush got 68% against Kerry). Taylor is a conservative Democrat, but he is the best we are going to get here. If he retires or gets primaried, this would be Repub. Not a priority
Bennie Thompson (MS 02) was first elected in 1993. This is a solidly
Democratic district (Kerry got 59%) and it deserves a solidly Democratic rep. HIGH PRIORITY. Dorothy Benford is running
Peter Visclosky (IN 01) was first elected in 1984, and this is another moderately Democratic district (Kerry got 55%). Visclosky is pretty liberal, so I want to know what he’s thinking, or else, HIGH PRIORITY. No opponent, deadline next week
Tim Walz (MN 01) is a freshman in a swing district (Bush got 51% against Kerry). Walz seems good on most issues, and this is not a priority.
Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL 20) was first elected in 2004. This is a solidly Democratic district (Kerry got 64%) and Schultz wins easily. She’s generally pretty liberal, but, I’d say, a moderate priority
Charles Wilson (OH 06) is a freshman in a swing district (Bush got 51% vs. Kerry). He has generally been pretty liberal, and is likely to be challenged by Republicans. Not a priority
Summary:
Of these 86 Democrats, 53 (if I’ve counted right) are in districts that went for Bush over Kerry. Most of these 53 are on the conservative side of the Democratic party, but that is hardly surprising. For those votes to change, the constituencies have to change. So, when I say “not a priority” I mean a PRIMARY is not a priority. But grass roots efforts ARE a priority…..make people see that Republicanism is stupid! This is especially true in the many swing districts.
Again, if I counted correctly, there are 25 high priority candidates on the list. That’s a LOT. We won’t win 25 primaries….but maybe we will move 25 representatives a bit to the left. And there are a few who might retire.
Next steps:
1. In the swing districts, let’s try to set up campaigns to influence the constituencies.
2. In the high priority districts, how can we find people to run?
3. Have we got a list of vulnerable Repubs? I can work on one, but I don’t want to duplicate effort.
4. Do something similar for the Senate – a list of Democrats is here
Update [2007-5-27 11:0:26 by plf515]:
5. Make a list of Democrats in vulnerable seats who did the right thing, and support them
sources:
Almanac of American Politics
Washington Post votes database
National Journal ratings
Progressive punch
I understand that he’s more moderate than we like, but I think that’s also a by-product of him being the House Whip (look at Pelosi, her district is probably the most liberal in the country [went to Kerry with at least 70% of the vote], but her voting record is only moderately liberal). Outside of that, though, I like this list, it’s very useful, and I think you sum it up pretty well.
One of the cardinal sins should be undermining the Democratic Party in general and the progressive agenda in particular by shooting off one’s mouth. Gene Taylor ran 50 points ahead of Kerry in his district and may vote conservatively but he quietly goes about his business. Ok by me. Melissa Bean actively courts the newbies and tries to sell them on the advantages of being as outspokenly conservative as possible. Primary her.
Within your list, I have some favorites and some favorite targets as well.
Charlie Melancon was the most outspoken LA Democrat against Bush on Katrina. That alone is enough to give him a pass for a while in an increasingly difficult state. Bill Jefferson, with his indictment, is a higher priority target in a relatively safe district.
John Barrow has the lowest Progressive Punch score of any Democrat in the House this session and he was actually stirring up dissent from the Democrats within his district. At least a moderate priority.
Rob Andrews has voted better this session but that shouldn’t save him. The rat has a huge war chest and statewide ambitions. With Lautenberg aging and Corzine making noises about drastically raising highway tolls we don’t want this man on the short list for governor or senator. Just draining the cash will take him off the list for advancemnent. Did I say the state’s most influential paper, the Star Ledger, has a thing about Andrews as the messenger boy of the Norcross Machine in Camden County. Yes, primary him.
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is relatively new to office and seems to be settling in and voting better. Her career Progressive Punch score is 77.97 but her score this session is 86.44. O think she is worth waiting out.
Leonard Boswell is aging and according to Iowa Democrats on the blogs is no longer an effective campaigner and actually a drag on the local ticket. I saw a tape from 2006 and he puts you to sleep. Ed Fallon is clearly more progressive, has a good chance in a primary, and no real Republican opposition has developed for the general election in Iowa 3 yet. Go for him.
Brian Baird has changed into an outspoken proponent for the war. He needs a challenge.
Why are we jumping so hard at the gun looking for people to primary?
I mean when they make giant mistakes and are unapologetic for them (Cuellar – contempt charges; Liberman – party bashing) I agree we should go after them. Just because they are not perfect liberals they should be taken out? I like have some moderation within our ranks.
The biggest thing to do is look at who these people represent. They are there to represent their constituents and priamaries should happen if we determine they are going against their constituent’s will. Lipinski’s district was democratic, but blue collar conservative democrats; sorta like Altmire’s PA-4 but with more immigrants.
Example; you said go after Gene Green in TX-29. That is blue collar stuff. They like socially moderate stances. People that push us forward a bit at a time. I can tell you right now, a primary is not what the locals in the are want.
I know I say this all too often but, lets cool our jets. Beginning of each session let’s identify 5-10 to go after and see if we can improve their record through threats first (remember what happened to Tauscher? She moved left after our threats). I kinda like having dissent to keep us honest.
I agree that sending a message to the Democratic establishment can be a good thing at times. It was the right thing to do to knock Al Wynn out in the primary. A message has been sent already, we want progressives.
I will not waste one dime on my money, one second of my time, or one iota of my thoughts or the money time or thoughts of anyone attempting to primary the people on this list. Now is not the time to be going after the Democrats that we don’t like.
We ran hard against Lipinski and we defeated Wynn. Message sent. Forget primaries that will only lessen our cash advantage over the Republicans, leaves these guys alone and target the Republicans. We will have enough trouble getting seats from them, never mind getting seats from them AND replacing some of these Dems.
One step at a time gentlemen. There will come a time when a primary challenge to Brian Baird and Dan Lipinski will be the right thing to do again, but it is not this year, and it won’t be in 2010 either. Even if they don’t always vote the way we’d like them to, they will vote for our re-districting plan and thats all that matters to me.
Boyda is actually the Kansas 2nd district
See this diary for why.
But… excellent diary, and I wish we could see more of this here, and other blogs with even more traffic. Have you cross-posted this on said blogs with more traffic, especially Daily Kos? If not, may I have your permission to repost it there? I will certainly give you credit. If you’ve already posted it there, please disregard the request, and give me a link to where it is on that one.
Did you tally up everyone who wasn’t a flaming anti-war liberal like Kuicinich and identify that they needed to be primaried. You have some names on here of congressman I really like. Highly populist Kanjorski, Vic Synder, a popular guy who doesn’t accept PAC money, or fundraise until a year before the election, and is a highly liberal guy for the south, who takes brave stances for abortion and Gay Marriage in Arkansas. Vic Synder especially. I am appalled to see him on this list. Allen Boyd has gone too far at times, being the only Democrat in congress to sign his support onto Bush’s proposal to privatize social security would irk me, but this is a conservative district and Democrats have not had a lot of luck in Florida until just last year. Peter Viscloskey, Bart Stupak, both powerful Democrats, fairly populist blue dogs, both highly respectable men whose records are great. McIntyre is just super conservative on military issues becuase his district has a major military base in it and like 180,000 current or retired military constituents who are highly conservative too. He’s also in fundy territory, so he’s socially conservative. But he’s not that bad on economic issues, and he always wins overwhelmingly. He would not switch parties if he lost in the primary.
Mike Ross is a great guy. A fairly young up and coming guy who could have a career some day. He, aside from Susan Davis in California, was the only other Democrat to unseat an incumbent Republican in 2000 when he unseated four term incumbent Jay Dickey, largly because Arkansans were pissed he voted to impeach Bill Clinton. A former El Dorado STate Senator, he could be Senator, or Governor, or just hold a rural, socially conservative seat for Democrats for a long time.
Melancon stopped Tauzin from handing this seat over to his son in 2004, then stopped ultra-conservative party switcher, State Sen. Craiq Romero from winning in 2006. He wouldn’t switch parties, and he seems a good fit for the rural, swampy district where many of my relatives live. A blue dog Democrat who opposes free trade and has a good grasp on agricultural issues. Case closed again.
I still can’t get over how both the Majority Leader and Whip are on here, and both are straight forward liberal guys who bring home the bacon as the saying goes and could never be beaten in a primary.
I don’t understand people’s hate of Lipinski. Sure Kerry won the district 59-40, but that doesn’t make the district liberal on every level. The Democratic party here is mostly poor to middle class blue collar workers who tend to be descended from recent immigrants, and are both Religous and socially conservative, but that is balanced by a distrust of the Republican Party and a very populist view. AS long as Lipinski keeps calling the shots right on economic issues, which are the most important issue really, (the election polls in 2006 even showed the issue voters choose as most important to them the most was the economy and this has typically been the Democratic Party’s strong point, so lets explot that, not the Republican Party’s traditional strong point, wars and national security, we tried that in 1972, 1968, and 2004, and had bad results each time).
Colin Peterson is a guy I like. A down to earth guy with agirculture issues in this extremely rural, farming district. Socially conservative, down the line, but against free trade and generally good on economic issues. Gets things done for his district as Chairman of the Agricultural Committee. Another bad choice.
So, you’d primary Sander Levin because of one vote, even though he’s really liberal, and the fact he’s been there a while. I like Congressmen with longterm experience, and a lot of seniority, I certainly don’t take it against them. Ron Kind? Ron Kind is our youngish Democratic Congressman who is intended to take over after Kohl retires in 2012, and he has the right profile too.
Please note that the two or three mostly hispanic districts you pointed out to primary are all socially conservative, and moderate districts.
You should be gracious we even have Chet Edwards. He’s a straight shooting straight forward guy, and an absolutely incredible campaigner to pull off the stuff he’s pulled off. His district is so conservative in every way possible, it makes Matheson’s look liberal by Comparison. Bush won this district 69-30. That’s a huge margin. He still won, despite having Waco county, and uber-conservative College Station added to his district. He went out and got the endorsements and won any way, despite a ton of new territory and the fact that nobody thought he could do it. He had it the toughest of any Texas Democrat targeted with the exception of Charles Stenholm, who got put into a district that eventually gave Bush 77% of the vote, (and still managed to get 43% of the vote). Nick Lampson, Frost, the others, none of them had it quite as bad, and in Lampson’s case he had a weak opponent, (Poe was just some County Judge who had never run a competitive general election campaign), and somehow in fact, all the other Democrats seemed to find ways to get creamed. Frost spent some 3 million dollars, and the DCCC two million, in a 65% Bush district he lost 56-44. Lampson lost 55-45, it was just a disapointment and goes to show just how extraodinary what Edwards did. Nobody gave him much of a chance to Represent President Bush’s Congressional District, but he did it, and it wasn’t razer thin, no recounts, close, but not challengable, 51-48.
You seem to want kick Kildee out just because he’s 78 and as been around a while. Not fair, and not good reasons. His district is another blue-collar socially conservative one. Like Dingells. Dingell you also want to primary just because he’s been around awhile. The Dean of the House primaried, what a lack of respect for his seniority. He’s not an invalid like Strom Thurmond, and he represents his district fairly well, and brings a lot of clout as Chairman of the Energy and Commerce committee. He’s populist, and takes a vigorous approach to oversight. He called Bush out on Global Warming, read a poem on the floor of the house criticizing Fox and Bill O’Reilly’s “War on Christmas”, (which is by itself enough for me to vote for him). He has forced the FDA and the EPA to do their jobs and forced bad officials to resign. The notion of primarying him is utter stupidity. I’d kind of like to see him break Jamie Whittens record for service in the senate. I’d also like to see his grandson, who is a state senator, suceed him, just because it would be like 78+ years of Dingell service for this district, and could possibly go over 100 years, I’m just quirky like that.
Rob Andrews is corupt and a party machine candidate. The NJ-DP shamefully destroys democracy by controlling who voters are allowed to vote for through corrupt backroom party politics. That’s why he should be primaried, not because of his political views.
Susan Davis and Norman Dicks are both good congresspersons. I don’t subscribe to the policy of purging the party of any moderate who doesn’t have good reason to be moderate. It hurts the party in the eyes of the massive, fast growing portion of the electorate who are moderates and registered independants, and it hurts in the eyes of more moderate Democrats, which I could hardly be called.
Bart Gordon is just a great guy. Great constiuent services, down to earth, always wins the fastest man in Congress award, (even over Olypmic Gold Medalist Jim Ryun), and great on Veterans issues, and has been good as chairman of the House Scienes committee. He shouldn’t even be listed, or criticized. Talk to most liberal Democrats in his district and they will tell you how great he is and how happy they are that he’s their congressman. Most of them. Oh, and he’s actually surprisingly young, to have been in Congress 27 years, he’s only 59.
Bud Cramer, unfortunately, used to be liberal, and a rampant environmentalist. Then he nearly lost in 1994 and turned 180 degrees and became more and more conservative, and saw his election margins get bigger and bigger and bigger, and decided he liked it, and has thus stayed conservative.
God Bless Davis, he picked up an open Republican Seat in the South in 2002. What more can you ask of a guy.
Look, I’m fairly disgusted when Republicans do this, and moreso when I see Democrats do it. There need to be moderates in the party, it creates a more balanced government and leads to greater discussion over legislation and important issues. There is no need for this. I would like to close my argument, and I yield the rest of my time to the honorable Senator from New York.
(By the way by latin roots Senator means old man. So Old Man Dole, is basically what you’re saying when you say Senator Elizabeth Dole.) Go see There Will Blood people, it’s awesome.
We don’t need to aim at 25 or even 10 Members. Pick the right 2 or 3 each year and that could get ‘er done. Here’s how:
What we want to do is tilt the whole Democratic caucus, not have a grudge against a few who stray. When we win one like replacing Al Wynn with Donna Edwards, the vote totals change by plus 1 and minus 1. The fewer in the minority within the D caucus, the fewer there will be, due to peer pressure, for lack of a better phrase. Donna Edwards will also shift the middle ground within the Congressional Black Caucus, helping to put peer pressure on other members of that group.
And more Democrats also means better Democrats. That peer pressure thing again, and another factor. If a House vote comes up 218 Aye and 215 Nay, then a handful of Dems in marginal districts are much more vulnerable to the charge that their votes changed the outcome. “The Bill passed by only five votes, including my opponent.” But if the vote is 235 Aye to 185 Nay, then the Dem in the marginal district can say, “That bill passed by a solid majority, by 50 votes. My opponent couldn’t do anything about it if he were elected. My vote didn’t change the result, and he is claiming he can do something in Washington that he simply won’t be able to do.”
Meanwhile, one or two or three challenges a year will be plenty. Lieberman is still a Senator, and still more or less a Democrat in the Senate, but he has been seriously embarrassed, even wounded by his primary loss. We haven’t seen many other Dems kissing up to Bush since that float hit the streets. And now Al Wynn becomes Exhibit B, and another powerful piece of evidence that voting for corporate donors instead of your voters may be hazardous to your career.
Even Lipsyncher will think twice before singing along with Bush again. He actually had to work for his office this time, and feared he could get spanked. Perhaps the most notable event in that race, however, was when a Congressman in a neighboring district withdrew his endorsement of Lipsyncher and endorsed Pera. Got that? A Congressman supported by the Chicago Machine endorsed Lipsyncher’s challenger. That was what happened in public. Wanna bet, in private somebody told Lipsyncher, “Hey, we’re behind you in this race, out of loyalty to your father. But this Pera guy is right, you vote like a goddam Republican. This is a Democratic town and a Democratic organization. If you want to keep our support, you got to support what we support.”
… but seeing as how it was from last year, what I meant to ask was, do you plan to post the updated version in the next day or so, and if not, do I have your permission to post it, including your observations about the individual districts there, if I give you credit?
to me. Obviously, local information such as yours about Gene Green, is very valuable, too.
Beacause W got more out of 232 Republicans in the House than Jimmy Carter did from 290+ Democrats. The Club For Growth with less than 100,000 members and certainly no more money than MoveOn was having 10 times the impact , heck 100 times the impact, of MoveOn by primarying a handful of House and a smaller number of Senate Republicans.
I tried an experiment with my Excel spreadsheet of House members: I created an ‘out-of-whackness’ index that ordered House members by their lifetime Progressive Punch scores and the PVI of their district, and looked for the widest disparities to see who was most underperforming and overperforming their districts.
There were some unsurprising results that match some of your conclusions, but some surprising results too. Most underperforming Dems:
1. Mike Doyle (PA-14) (D+22: #42, 73.7: #206, disparity of -164)
2. Kendrick Meek (FL-17) (D+35: #10, 85.4: #136, disparity of -126)
3. Bill Jefferson (LA-02) (D+28: #27, 83.9: #147, disparity of -120)
4. Al Wynn, RIP (MD-04) (D+30: #24, 84.8: #140, disparity of -116)
5. Bob Brady (PA-01) D+36: #8, 86.8, #123.5, disparity of -115.5)
My first reaction was who the heck is Mike Doyle? Apparently, he represents staunchly Democratic Pittsburgh but has a Murtha-style record: he’s voted the right way on the war, so he hasn’t attracted the eye of any Bush Dog spotters, and is pro-union, but is pro-life, pro-military spending, and bad on the environment, so his Progressive Punch score is at the low end for Dems. So the question is whether he’s the best we can do in heavily Catholic Pittsburgh, or whether it’s ready for a real progressive (unlike, say, the more outlying parts of SW PA, where Murtha and Altmire are good fits).
For what it’s worth, the next five are Greg Meeks, Joe Crowley, Rob Andrews, David Scott, and Jim Moran. Some of our most frequent targets of abuse were much further down the list: Jane Harman (#13), Dan Lipinski (#42), Ellen Tauscher (#47), Leonard Boswell (#82), and Henry Cuellar (#101).
What Dems are overperforming their districts’ lean (and, one would assume, should be exempt from primary threats)? Among veterans (I had to exclude freshmen since, at the time I did the list, they all had pretty good voting records… it’d be interesting to re-run the results now that everyone has a full year of votes factored into their P.P. scores) at the top of the list was Chet Edwards (TX-17) (R+18: #416, 68.6: #216, disparity of +200).
He’s followed by Nick Lampson, Jim Matheson, Gene Taylor, and Earl Pomeroy.
This method, overly generalized as it is, may also be useful for pinning down vulnerable Republicans who are out-of-whack with their districts. Most out-of-whack is known wingnut Tim Walberg in MI-07 (R+2: #231, 2.06: #418, disparity of -187). He’s followed by Tom Feeney, John Kline, Michelle Bachmann, and Ric Keller.
Anyway, I mention this because it’s a good way to actually bring an objective (inasmuch as Progressive Punch is objective) metric to this discussion. If you re-diary this, I’d suggest including a table that includes the PVIs and Progressive Punch scores, and if you’re really feeling ambitious, roll call votes on the most definitive votes of this cycle (so you can pinpoint guys like Brian Baird who are mostly solid but completely wrong on something key).